Monday, February 8, 2010

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Inbound box traffic at retail ports could increase 25 percent in first half

The level of import containerized volume at major U.S. port gateways that handle heavy retail cargoes is projected to be 25 percent higher during the first half of 2010 compared with the same period a year ago, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"This is a dramatic turnaround over what we’ve seen during the past two years," said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy.

"Increases in import volumes don’t correspond directly with dollar volumes in sales, so caution has to be exercised when looking at these numbers. But retailers are clearly expecting to move more merchandise this year," he said.

U.S. ports handled 1.09 million TEUs this past December, up 2.6 percent from December 2008, breaking a 28-month streak of declined, year-on-year monthly totals, the NRF reported.

January 2010’s box numbers are estimated at 1.19 million TEUs, a 17 percent increase over January 2009, and February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.1 million TEUs, up 30 percent from the previous year, the report said.

The retail group’s March cargo forecast is for 1.18 million TEUs, up 23 percent as retailers begin stocking up for the peak shipping season. April is forecast at 1.25 million TEUs, up 27 percent. May is pegged at 1.3 million TEUs, up 26 percent; and June is projected to hit 1.38 million TEUs, up 36 percent, according to the report.

The sum of the NRF’s first-half containerized volume would be 7.4 million TEUs, up 25 percent from last year’s 5.9 million TEUs, which ended last year down 12.7 percent from the 15.2 million TEUs handled in 2008.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett disagrees in the report with other economists who have speculated the economy is in the middle of a “W-shaped” recover – or “double-dip” recession.

"This forecast assumes that we are not in a double-dip recession and that a recovery is underway," Hackett said in the report. "Although 2009 saw decreased import activity levels, the forecast for 2010 points towards growth."

The Global Port Tracker covers the U.S. ports of Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

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