Monday, October 15, 2012

China’s exports rise 10 percent in September, slowed economy may be stabilizing

China’s exports and money supply growth were better than expected in September, indicating that nation’s economy may be stabilizing after a slowdown that began in the early 2011.

Exports increased 9.9 percent year on year, the customs administration stated, significantly more than the 5.5 predicted by a group of economists polled by Bloomberg News. Inflation data and an October 18th third quarter report will fill in the blanks and determine whether or not action is needed to sustain China’s economic growth, just as the new leadership of the Communist Party begins to take over in November.

“Better-than-expected export growth is likely to help support employment and reduce pressure for more policy easing ahead of the leadership transition,” said Chang Jian, an economist at Barclays. “Monetary easing has been constrained by concerns about a rebound in property prices and medium-term inflation risks.”

The fact that there is no big stimulus planned indicates some worry in Beijing about higher government debt, the banks’ non-performing loans, and inefficient investment, according to Jian.

For more of the Businessweek story: businessweek.com

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