Thursday, September 11, 2014
U.S. energy agency: Demand for petroleum to rise 38 percent by 2040
The global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels will increase 38 percent by 2040, triggered by increased demand in the developing nations of Asia and the Middle East, according to "International Energy Outlook 2014" (IEO2014), a new report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
"The growth outlook for liquid fuels use will be largely driven by demand in the developing world, especially in Asia and the Middle East," said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski. "Those two regions combined account for 85 percent of the total increase in liquid fuels used worldwide over that period."
The IEO2014 report projects that worldwide use of liquid fuels will grow from 87 million barrels per day in 2010 to 119 MMbbl/d in 2040. Increasing demand for liquid fuels is focused on the emerging economies of China, India, and the Middle East, while demand in the U.S., Europe, and other areas with established oil markets seems to have peaked.
OPEC oil producers will continue to be the largest source of additional liquid fuel supplies between 2010 and 2040, the report forecasts, assuming OPEC producers will incrementally invest in production capacity, letting them maintain a share of between 39 percent and 44 percent of total world production. OPEC crude and lease condensate accounts for 14 MMbbl/d of the 33 MMbbl/d increase projected in total liquid fuel supply.
Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production is forecast to increase by 10 MMbbl/d, according to IEO2014. Potential new supplies of oil from tight and shale resources have raised optimism for large, new sources of global liquid supplies to meet growing demand.
Compared to previous reports, IEO2014 incorporates larger new supplies of tight oil from the U.S. and Canada. However, it projects that other nations, including Mexico, Russia, Argentina, and China, will begin producing substantial volumes of tight oil between now and 2040.
To read the IEO2014 report: www.eia.gov
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