Up Front: Ten years later – A cracked crystal ball
By Peter Hurme
This September issue of Cargo Business News marks the publication’s 88th year. Many a peak shipping season has been covered since the debut issue of the magazine formerly titled Marine Digest in September of 1922.
This magazine has chronicled the impacts to shipping from such major economic events as the Great Depression of the 1930s all the way to this Great Recession of 2009.
My first issue as editor of this magazine was the September 1999 issue – exactly 10 years ago.
That issue was focused on the need for increased West Coast intermodal capacity for the projected onslaught of containers from Asia. Construction on Southern California’s massive Alameda Corridor project was well underway, and all container ports on the Coast were reporting enhancements to accommodate what seemed like a limitless upward curve of box growth; at least through the year 2020.
It would have blown me away to be able to read through this month’s issue of the magazine 10 years ago.
What would I have thought to see the following line in Walter Kemmsies’ economic outlook this month:
“It took some time for things to fall apart…”
Fall apart? The only things I could have seen causing the shipping industry to fall apart from my first issue at the helm to now would have been lack of capacity, infrastructure and technological advances on the working waterfront.
The Panama Canal widening seemed so far away ten years back, and so did viable alternative gateways in Canada (Prince Rupert) and Mexico. To a certain extent, even the East Coast was a relative far cry as a serious Asia cargo contender.
But if I had been granted further crystal ball access to this issue, I would have read Rick Knee’s article claiming that change happened when dock labor strife on the West Coast prompted the shift of more East Coast-bound volume from intermodal to all-water routing in late 2002, and that ever since, West Coast ports have been struggling to get it back.
The other trend-setting shift in Rick’s article points out the episode of extreme congestion on the West Coast during the peak importing season of 2004.
In both of the preceding cases, the desire of shippers to avoid West Coast labor issues became much more intense.
Moreover, to have read Diane Mettler’s cover story on shipping companies finding ways to make money by going green in their operations would not have seemed as viable to me a decade back, nor would David Bennett’s column this issue on the meaning of a word that is now entrenched in every industry’s lexicon – “sustainable.”
The world has changed significantly in the past ten years: From the horrific terrorist attacks on 9/11, to the historic inauguration of the first African-American President of the United States.
Back to the crystal ball: what does the next ten years hold for the shipping industry?
I don’t have a clue, do you?
In This Issue
News, Trends & Analysis
New Items
The outlook is improving
Supply Chain
Federal chassis rules: Are you ready?
Working with the public sector
How will your company deal with Sarbanes-Oxley
Features
Gateway at a glance –Southern California
Ports & infrastructure
Nowhere near a Peak Season this year
Port Products
Green port product review
Commentary
Sustainable: The new buzz word
On the Horizon
Expect to see more LNG fuel stations in the future
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