Up Front: Is the will mightier than the reality?
Or are things really starting to pick up?

By Peter Hurme

Near the end of the Wizard of Oz, Dorothy is told to tap her heels three times and say, “There’s no place like home, there’s no place like home…,” and of course, we know how it turns out — she wills her way back to the comfort of Auntie Em in good old Kansas.

Such is how it seems to be in our global economy, and particularly in the shipping industry. After months of mostly negative press reports about the cliff we all fell from, we are now reading more and more positive news (our media concern included).

From top transportation execs predicting various levels of recovery from Q4 ’09 to 2010, to manufacturing and trade indices picking up ever so slightly, but positively — the world, and most importantly, the U.S., seems to be willing itself slowly back into contention.

There are many places to go for clues to recovery, including this issue of Cargo Business News. Just check out the columns of Walter Kemmsies and David Bennett, for starters.

Another interesting resource I’ve found for gauging the pulse of the industry (that, I grant you, is a microcosm of the critical mass) has been on CBN’s own Linkedin group, where various discussion topics are posted to our several hundred members.

One such question posed by a group member was aimed at trying to get the “real story” behind the shipping economy.

Following are some snippets of member responses to this question (you can view these and more discussion and networking opportunities by joining the “Cargo Business News — Tools for the Transport Trade” group at www.linkedin.com):

  • “For ocean freight the volumes are getting stronger and carriers appear to be trying to secure freight rate increases, something that 10 months ago was not even a discussion point.”
  • “Ocean freight will lead the recovery as merchants re-stock, particularly for the holidays. Like a freight train, one car moves out at a time until we are all going.”
  • “What you are seeing are idle vessels, but you are also seeing full vessels under the
    vessel-sharing agreements. Inventories are starting to be replaced, so volumes are starting to increase and vessels will slip back into rotation as they start to fill, but they will still be rationalized in order to control capacity so they will be in a position to increase the rates. Supply and demand curve working at its best!”
  • “As the recovery of the infrastructure continues, we hope to see those LTL shipments
    beginning to pick up as the smaller components needed for the infrastructure needed; and as we get closer to the holiday season, the trucking industry will hopefully see rises in their bill counts and revenues.”
  • “Keep in mind too, that, as the economy begins to rebound, and allocations are being filled, the ocean transportation world can start to bring back any ships that have been laid up or service lane that was suspended, creating a complete circle of life. The reintroduction of ships and destinations present an empty stow plan that has to be filled, therefore keeping pricing at a steady pace.”

On the one hand, I think these are all intelligent responses from an informed group of working cargo industry pros that deal with different aspects of these issues on a day-to-day basis.

On the other, I also feel this is a sign of the will starting to take a little more control over the reality; and barring an unforeseen disaster that causes our fragile recovery to stumble, “recovery” may occur sooner than later.

Wouldn’t Dorothy agree?

In This Issue

Up Front

News, Trends & Analysis
New Items

The risks of delayed action

Supply Chain
Is your service provider compliant?

Does that belong in my port?

Features
Grading the carriers: How are your service providers doing?

Gateway at a glance: China

Ports & infrastructure
Port Productivity Tools: Six success stories

U.S. ports downsize staffs in new economy

Port Products
RTGs and reach stackers

Commentary
What’s on the horizon?

On the Horizon
Fleets of the future: The Chameleon

Casualties