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The Internet of 2020 By Diane Mettler The Internet turned 40 this year. Of course, that depends upon who you speak to and when you consider its date of conception. A little history PC World, which can be trusted to know a thing or two about this subject, has said that the Internet was conceived of in 1969, when the U.S. military funded Arpanet (Advanced Research Projects Agency). This network of computers, which was the largest in the world at the time, connected five sites: UCLA, Stanford, UC Santa Barbara, the University of Utah and BBN. In 1984 Arpanet was renamed the Internet, when it linked 1,000 hosts at university and corporate labs. But it wasn’t until 1992 before the Internet really started to blossom. Between 1992 and 2001, Internet hosts grew from basically 0 to 150+ million. It has grown exponentially since then and today there’s an estimated 1 to 1.5 billion users. No slowing down We may have gotten “connected” in the 90s, but it was in the last decade the Internet has increased speed, bandwidth and functionality, and it doesn’t seem to be slowing any time soon. We use the Internet to do everything from tracking shipments in real time to Twittering about new products. It’s hard to predict where it’s all headed, but many have made predictions. The Pew/Internet & American Life Project surveyed over 500 experts to find out what they thought the Internet would look like in 2020. A look at 2020 The experts agreed that: We will use the mobile device as our primary tool to connect to the internet. There will be more transparency of people and organizations (although more transparency didn’t necessarily mean more integrity.) Voice recognition and touch user interfaces will be more prevalent. Enforcing intellectual property law and copyright protection will remain a continuing “arms race,” with hackers finding ways to copy and share content without payment. The lines between personal and work time and between physical and virtual reality will be further erased. They also had some disturbing predictions. For one, the majority believed humans will “…remain in charge of technology, even as more activity is automated and “smart agents” proliferate, but a significant 42 percent of survey respondents were pessimistic about humans’ ability to control technology in the future. They felt dangers and dependencies will grow beyond our ability to stay in charge of technology.” 2020 and beyond Looking even farther out, Brett MacLean in his article What Direction is the Internet Headed? Said that he sees a future where global distribution of knowledge will become less expensive and more available. “Because people will have access to any and all information, they will be become smarter sooner and more aware of the world outside their community.” Mac Lean added, “A better-informed humanity will make better macro-level decisions, and an increasingly integrated world will drive international relations towards a global focus. Attachments to countries will marginally decrease, and attachments to the Earth as a shared resource will significantly increase.” That may sound like a wonderful world ahead of us, but in the same article MacLean spoke about the Internet2 project, which is trying to define the next generation of the Internet. Some of their predictions weren’t quite as rosy. For example: Two-thirds of the experts predicted at least one devastating attack on network information infrastructure in the next 10 years. Some believed serious attacks would become a regular part of life. Fifty-nine percent predicted increased government and business surveillance, as computing devices are embedded in appliances, cars, phones and even clothing. It’s impossible to predict for certain how the Internet will evolve. However, there are a couple of certainties we can bank on. The Internet will take us in directions we have yet to discover and we will all be adapting like crazy to keep up. Sources: http://www.pcworld.com/article/159471-6/the_evolution_of_the_internet.html http://forums.webhostdir.com/showthread.php?t=22533 http://www.pewinternet.org/~/media//Files/Reports/2008/PIP_FutureInternet3.pdf.pdf	In This Issue Up Front News, Trends & Analysis New Items U.S. employment environment promotes import uncertainty Supply Chain How are you planning for the rebound? Trade compliance often has a broader scope Features Optimism characterizes inaugural Southeast Freight Conference Gateway at a glance: Northern California Ports & infrastructure Prince Rupert looks towards Memphis Canada tries to standardize port performance metrics Global players jockey over Arctic shipping routes Port Products Terminal management systems Commentary Roll up your sleeves for the next phase On the Horizon The Internet of 2020 Casualties
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The Internet of 2020