Supply Chain

Can We Achieve Lower Emission Targets?

New Software Allows Better Planning for Future Actions

Ever wondered what transportation in our cities and ports will look like in
2050? Well, now you may have your chance to find out.

The VIBAT-London project (Visioning and Backcasting for Transport in London) has allowed London’s policy makers to examine what the city will need to accomplish, both socially and technologically, to reach reduced carbon emissions targets by 2025 and 2050.

The interactive simulation program, created jointly by Halcrow, Oxford University, and Space Syntax, allows users to simulate changes to different aspects of the transportation sector, for specified carbon emission goals.

New View
This simulation program is novel in its approach to forecasting. Dr. Robin Hickman, associate director, Research Sector, Halcrow Group, calls it “backcasting.”
“Transport planning tends to be based upon forecasting methodologies,” says Hickman. “We forecast historic trends and extrapolate them into the future. Then we build a future around that forecast projection.

“In the terms of transport carbon emissions, we wanted to break existing trends. So we developed a methodology where we envision a sustainable transport future and then cast back from the future time period — say 2050 or 2025. We developed a program to achieve a different sustainable future — something that allows you to examine how to deliver transport futures.”

Elements of the Program
The simulation program itself is simple. You pick the level of emissions reduction you want to achieve — say 60 percent by 2050, the UK’s current target. Then you choose from a variety of policy measures (both technological and behavioral), and see how that combination will achieve the target emissions reduction. (See below.)
For example, to reduce car emissions, you can do a combination of the following: move away from SUVs, use alternative fuels, find alternative ways to get around, devise better urban planning, create better vehicle efficiency, reduce trip lengths, etc.

Lessons Learned
Hickman says the project demonstrates that there is an enormous gap between London’s strategic target of a 60 percent emissions reduction and actually achieving it. This is replicated in cities around the world.

“The headline conclusion is that we need radical reductions in carbon emissions in the transport sector, and we will need to invest in a huge range of options to get anywhere near the target,” says Hickman. “It means we need to get the public to buy hybrid cars, to use public transport, and to walk and cycle more than they do at the moment. And that’s a huge challenge to enable that sort of behavioral change. The question is how to deliver this change.”

The modeling shows that the same kinds of changes would have to take place in the freight sector — greener vehicles, as well as local sourcing of goods, improving labeling, and people’s awareness of the goods that they choose.

“Eventually it all feeds into reduced carbon emissions,” says Hickman.

What to Do Now
If the modeling shows anything, it’s that reducing emissions is a very complex problem and will take a lot of investment and social change.

Hickman hopes that the VIBAT project will help urban and transport planners, policy makers, and the public, start to think very differently about tackling the global emissions problem. And that they will take away points from this study to apply to future studies, including:

• This is about achieving a better quality of life that is less environmentally adverse in terms of impact — not just lowering emissions.
• The transport sector needs to act, not simply debate.
• Cities like London are providing a lead, but this knowledge must be shared.
• The strategic targets are very ambitious, and the required changes are being hugely underestimated.

•  If we are going to hit anything close to our strategic targets, behavioral, and lifestyle changes are required. The challenge is that these changes are very difficult to engender.

Coming to Your City Soon
Similar modeling has already begun in Victoria, Canada and Delhi, India.
“Backcasting can be applied to any city, port, or other context,” says Hickman. “We just need to look at the different ranges of policy interventions available and quantify likely impacts.”

If you are interested in seeing more on the project, just log on to www.vibat.org. And if you are interested in applying Dr. Hickman’s work to your locale, he can be contacted at HickmanRo@halcrow.com.