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Up Front: Fearlessly Fearful Predictions By Peter Hurme “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction. “ Bill Gates “Always do whatever’s next.” George Carlin Mr. Gates is right, but so is George. We do need to move onto whatever’s next, albeit with an eye to 2020. That milestone year had been used as the Holy Grail goal date for tripled global containerized cargoes. It is now a more humbled milestone for, hopefully, sounder business principals, and vision. Ah, but the reality of now is that we’ve entered 2010, and the hope is for the Great Reconstruction of the global economy. Change won’t come without bumps along the way, but few would argue we’ve entered into one of the biggest economic transitions in modern history, and what comes out the other end will be quite different from where we all thought we were headed. So, with that… Some quick and dirty 2010 predictions: The environmental battle over the waterfront will continue, but so too will change The evolving, next-generation of technologies will become more woven into the fabric of transport and logistics More “shovel-ready” transportation infrastructure stimulus projects, but are they all the right ones? Shippers will pay more, but they won’t forget 2010 Peak Season will experience a late spike be prepared At least one major container-shipping line will cease to be as we know it Some traditionally containerized ports will start placing more emphasis on other cargo types Continued migration of Asia-Eastern U.S. cargo won’t grow as much as predicted Continued migration of Asia-Eastern U.S. cargo has a bright future (keep an eye on those fuel costs, though) West Coast ports wake up and smell the tradewinds Security will be messy: TWIC integration, how/when to best screen containers. The supply chain will need to be vigilant Freight rail becomes a top priority — thanks, Mr. Buffett! Readers prognosticate What do you in the cargo business universe think of this or that in the coming year? Some comments by members of our Tools of the Transport Trade social media group on Linkedin offer some responses, and predictions from the front lines based on various group discussions: Jan 1. 2010 Oakland dirty truck ban: “Like it or not, the [dirty truck] ban at the ports is going to happen. Unfortunately hundreds of LMC’s and thousands of truckers who knew of the ban for nearly two years thought otherwise. Labor organizers preached the idea that it would be postponed, hoping the owner operators would believe it, and many did. Now, these non-planners will be out of business. Sad, but exactly why those of us who spent millions on new trucks, and lobbying efforts have prepared for this.” DHS Secretary says impossible to screen all containers by 2010 deadline: “Part of the problem is that we pass laws and deadlines that are not met due to the people passing them not having a full understanding of the complexities of the supply chain and what it would take to accomplish a 100 percent screening mandate. We really need to identify what it is we want to accomplish. No one has wanted to discuss the use of container based sensors but with the cost of this technology coming down and the ability to have smart sensors that minimize the cost of data transmission, it may be time to revisit if there is a different approach that can be taken.” Trans-Pacific carriers raise rates: The lines are just copping the OPEC model set in the 1970s. Create an artificial shortage and then raise the price. Antitrust immunity needs to be retired. The weaker lines feed off the larger ones. Each year is different for retail: “The 2008 holiday season was poor and left retailers with large inventories in Q1 2009. Most seasonal businesses have revolving credit facilities that need to be paid off after the peak season. Hence we see large inventory sell offs in the begining of each year. The first quarter of 2009 was exceptionally brutal - consumers were cutting way back as banks were failing and unable to extend credit. Going into the 2009 holiday spending season retailers were likely to delay placing orders in order to get more information on the turn in the economy and develop a feel for the tone of the recovery. In short, it would be wrong to make year-on-year comparisons because behavior has changed. Wal-mart’s CEO spoke about the “new normal”, which may be a nice shorthand way of describing the different behavior of importers compared to past years.” Bill weighs in: Put trade on Washington’s to-do list Trade was barely mentioned in 2009, but it should be on the to-do lists for both the Obama administration and Congress this year. In particular, Congress needs to act on free-trade agreements with Colombia, Korea and Peru negotiated by the Bush administration, and President Obama should put his prestige behind the effort. Free-trade agreements lower the barriers to U.S. goods and services in foreign markets — and that means more jobs for Americans. While the U.S. dithers, other countries are busy negotiating more than 100 regional and bilateral FTAs. Last November, for example, Canada signed a free-trade agreement with Colombia. That gives Canadian companies a competitive edge because their goods are subject to lower import duties than American exports. Next up for Canada is a free-trade agreement with India. Besides the three pending FTAs, Obama should ask Congress to renew presidential trade promotion authority so that his administration could negotiate new FTAs and submit them to Congress for a straight up-or-down vote, instead of having them subject to potentially endless amendments. Other governments are understandably reluctant to negotiate trade deals with the U.S. if Congress could demand additional concessions beyond those they made in the course of the negotiations. Bill Armbruster, contributing editor CBN in 2010: New faces, offerings, and print schedule The New Year brings changes to the CBN enterprise, and we think they’re pretty good ones. For starters — some new names on the masthead (and a few more coming in weeks and months ahead): Bill Armbruster — Bill is a well known trade and transportation media veteran, and is based in the shipping nexus of New York-New Jersey and will be bringing just that — timely trade and transportation tools and news to the pages of CBN each issue. Dennis O’Brien — A deeply experienced media sales and marketing professional, Dennis brings a sophisticated (and pleasant) approach to our advertisers as CBN’s new western regional sales manager. He is also highly tech savvy and is based in the Silicon Valley region. Donalyn Croghan — Donalyn (“Dee”), our eastern regional sales manager, also based in New Jersey, is an experienced transportation industry media sales professional. Dee brings the complete package to our customers, including her infectious enthusiasm. The Port Community — You’ll note that beginning this issue, the port section of the magazine is under The Port Community banner, which ties into our new web-based platform for news, information and targeted social media interaction: www.theportcommunity.com. Check it out and become a member — it’s free! Read through the rest of this issue to note other exciting changes to the regular content, such as our Trade Trends partnership with industry statistics specialist, Zepol; Diane Mettler’s Tech Trends and The Shipping Environment; federal legislative issues that impact your business courtesy of Blakey & Agnew’s Capital Watch; and our new Final Say on the back page, with industry-fed commentary. Change in CBN’s print schedule — Beginning this year, Cargo Business News is combining a few issues (including this one) while we increase the depth and breadth of our electronic and online channels. So, you’ll receive 10 print issues instead of 12 in your mailbox this year, including Dec/Jan and July/August. However, there will be a lot more CBN to go around with our daily Cargo Business Newswires, social media groups (Linkedin, The Port Community), www.cargobusinessnews.com, industry events, and our port handbooks. Stay tuned… I forgot to add one more prediction for 2010: It will be one of the most exciting years on record to be covering the shipping industry!	In This Issue Up Front News, Trends & Analysis New Items Transport Economics: Don’t be so gloomy Capitol Watch: From cargo screening to roadability equipment Trade Tools: A different world of trade in 2010 Supply Chain Chris Steele: The corner and what’s around it Compliance Corner: Hot trade compliance issues for 2010 Tech Trends: Five trends for 2010 Commentary David Bennett: Five predictions for 2010 Gateway Glance Georgia Vietnam The Port Community East Coast Ports 2010: Five things to watch for West Coast Ports 2010: The future of West Coast port productitivy? The Shipping Environment: Five sustainable trends for 2010 Product Review: Cranes Casualties Triple-deck trailer barge snaps towline, tankers leak, Coast Guard ice breaker runs aground ... and much more Final Say Your supply chain dynamics: 2010 crisis? Or oppotrunities?
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Up Front: Fearlessly Fearful Predictions